The weaponization of water: Transboundary river dispute resolution frameworks under stress

Abstract

Increased strategic use of transboundary water for political leverage threatens the resilience of international river governance. Traditional cooperation through treaties and organisations faces growing challenges posed by geopolitical competition, climate variability, and infrastructure inequality. This qualitative study of the Indus, Nile, Mekong, Euphrates-Tigris, and Brahmaputra basins integrates theories of hydro-hegemony, international law, and environmental security. The research defines "water weaponisation" as the deliberate upstream manipulation of flows or infrastructure for political gain when downstream states lack timely institutional recourse. While mechanisms like mediation and joint monitoring are essential, their effectiveness is often undermined by data secrecy, inflexible legal obligations, and broader security conflicts. The study concludes that institutional success depends on facilitating communication and monitoring behaviour during crises rather than the mere existence of a treaty. Proposed reforms include modernised legal protections, "crisis preparedness," independently auditable hydrological data, and climate-responsive allocation rules. These changes aim to reduce the strategic value of unilateral manipulation, thereby safeguarding regional stability.