From the Arab Spring to the Us--Iran War: Strategic Alliances, Regional Realignment, and the Emergence of a New Security Architecture in the Middle East

Abstract

Driven by series of major geopolitical jolts--the Arab Spring, the Gaza conflict, the Abraham Accords, and US/Israel attack in Iran—the Middle East is undergoing one of the most consequential strategic re-alignments, since the end of the Cold War. The developing situation have essentially reformed security perceptions of the region, setting in motion geopolitical realignment proxy conflicts, and a continued period of instability. Instead of strengthening democratic governance, state institutions, and stability, the repeated jolts expanded the influence of non-state armed groups and intensified regional competition. While the prevailing scholarship has analyzed each jolt separately, little attention has been given to understand how these strategic jolts have collectively influenced creation of the new regional alignments and added to the formation of an evolving security architecture. Using a qualitative methodology based on news reports, recent scholarly literature, official policy documents, comparative case analysis and other open and online sources, the research plots transition of the region from chiefly American-led security order toward a flexible, multipolar system categorized by diversified partnerships, fluid coalitions, and strategic hedging. After analyzing the evolving roles and interests of the Gulf states, regional and extra regional powers including the United States, Russia, China, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, the article concludes that it is not the ideological affinity but changing threat perceptions which have acted as a principal driver of the alliance behavior in the present-day Middle East.